Yardeni warns of market risks from Trump’s potential yield curve strategy
Investing.com -- Yardeni Research has raised concerns over President Donald Trump’s efforts to lower government borrowing costs, warning that his proposed yield curve control (YCC) strategy could backfire if bond investors push back.
Trump has made no secret of his desire to reduce interest expenses on U.S. debt, attacking Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and floating the idea of refinancing maturing long-term bonds with short-term Treasury bills.
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Learn More Powered by Money.com - Yahoo may earn commission from the links above.“One way is replacing Fed Chair Powell with a Trump loyalist… Another involves replacing maturing long-term Treasury bonds with short-term Treasury bills until long-term bond yields fall enough to refinance advantageously,” Yardeni wrote.
While Trump believes “the entire yield curve would decline, saving the US federal government ‘hundreds of billions of dollars,’” if the Fed were to lower rates, Yardeni cautioned that this assumption ignores how financial markets might react.
“The Bond Vigilantes could spoil his victory by pushing bond yields higher,” just as they did in early April when yields spiked following tariff announcements.
Trump’s appointment of Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has so far reassured some market participants. But as Yardeni noted, “it isn’t clear whether he has decided to proceed with this plan,” which will be clearer during the July 30 quarterly refunding announcement.
If Trump proceeds, the risk is that bondholders may resist by demanding higher yields, particularly if a new Fed chair attempts rate cuts “not justified by the incoming data.”
Yardeni warned: “Trump’s YCC-T plan might be a clever way to lower the net interest outlays of the federal government. Or it might result in another round of turmoil in the capital markets.”
Either way, the standoff between Trump, Powell, and the Bond Vigilantes “raises concerns about the internal conflict with the Fed” and market volatility ahead.
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